Presidential election to bring changes to Ukrainian politics
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West vs Russia
In 2004, Yushchenko won an unprecedented third round of voting after mass protests against alleged electoral fraud resulted in victory being denied to the Kremlin-backed Yanukovych.
However, Yushchenko suffered a sharp decline in domestic support during his tenure due to a number of issues, ranging from his pursuit of NATO membership and anti-Russian policies, to excessive focus on historical issues such as the alleged deaths from starvation of several million Ukrainians in the 1930s under Soviet leader Josef Stalin.
Opinion polls show the West-leaning president has little chance of winning a second term in office.
Victory for either Yanukovych or Tymoshenko will see significant improvement of the Ukrainian-Russian relations, analysts say.
Yanukovych seeks balanced, mutual beneficial and friendly foreign policies, while Tymoshenko eyes potential for economic cooperation with Russia and other member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States and insists referendum be held on Ukraine's accession into collective security.
Anyone but Yushchenko wins will be favorable to Russia. On the one hand, Moscow has kept in close touch with Yanukovych, who has never hidden his pro-Russian stand; on the other hand, Russia's cooperation with Tymoshenko's cabinet has been enhanced remarkably over the past year.
In particular, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with Tymoshenko in Yalta last November, agreed to a lower volume of gas supplies to Ukraine in 2010 taking into account Ukraine's economic turmoil.
Putin also promised not to levy fines on Ukraine for importing less gas than that set out in contracts signed earlier between the two former Soviet neighbors. In a sign of their warm relationship, Putin said he found "it comfortable to work with the government of Tymoshenko."
Analysts forecast a slowdown in Ukraine's bid for NATO membership and a thaw in the Ukraine-Russia ties after the presidential election. But the east European country struggling with an economic downturn is hungry for assistance and support from the West.
Therefore, it is generally believed that a new president will cement ties with Russia and at the same time maintain cooperation with the European Union and the United States.
