Presidential election to bring changes to Ukrainian politics
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Challenges abound
Ukraine's president, government and parliament have been wrestling with each other since the "Orange Revolution." The squabbling within the parliament, among others, has been the root cause of Ukraine's political turbulence. Whoever wins, a new president will face the daunting task to knock the intricate relationships into shape.
There are speculations that Yanukovych and Tymoshenko might reach a compromise after they both enter the next round, with Tymoshenko taking the post of prime minister under a presidency of Yanukovych.
However, analysts say such an idea is highly unlikely to come true given the longstanding disputes between their parties. Yanukovych has publicly heaped scorn on the speculations.
The Ukrainian parliament has expanded and the power of the president shrunk since parliament-presidential regimes were forged in the country on Jan. 1, 2006, under amendments to the constitution. However, there have been no clear rules for Kiev's political games and the president still plays a key role in politics.
Andrei Ermolaev, a Ukrainian political observer, said the election will have a great impact on the evolution of Ukraine's political forces as both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko boast a solid base in parliament. Whoever wins between the two will achieve dominance over parliament.
Yanukovych is certain to overhaul the cabinet once he comes to power, analysts say. If Yanukovych does not dismiss the existing parliament in advance of the next parliamentary election, his Regions Party will try to overthrow the current coalition and form a new one with other parties.
Apparently, taking advantage of his victory to dissolve parliament will be more beneficial to Yanukovych and his party. But the implementation of the blueprint is restricted by the ongoing economic crisis.
If Tymoshenko becomes president, she will spare no effort to maintain political stability. Instead of dismissing parliament anytime soon, she is likely to reshuffle the cabinet on a small scale and sack ministers in support of Yushchenko.
