Hope in a time of change
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Developing Sino-Japanese relations
On December 10, Ichiro Ozawa, the DPJ's "power behind the throne" visited China accompanied by a huge delegation of 600 politicians and business leaders. Analysts say this move by Ozawa was intended to make clear that he was the real leader of the DPJ and he wished to write a new page in Sino-Japanese history, following in the footsteps of his political mentor Kakuei Tanaka. In Ozawa's own words, when he met Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi before setting off to China, "Japan and China will enter an era of partnership in the 21st century, and will broaden and deepen the political achievements of their predecessors." Three days after the statement, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping visited Japan, a signal that the bilateral relationship between the two neighbouring countries is moving to a new era of healthy and steady development.
Having gone through the "cold politics and hot economics" era of the 1990s and early years of this century, and the period of top level political visits – also known as "breaking ice, melting ice, expecting spring, and enjoying spring" – a new period of "strategic reciprocity" between China and Japan has been established.
On disputes concerning history, the DPJ's central leadership explicitly opposes political visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, says Japan should "learn from history and look to the future". The DPJ favours trying to solve the disputes by deepening historical understanding, which is a constructive approach.
In cooperation on the economy, trade, energy saving and environmental protection, the two countries are making substantial progress. Meanwhile, regarding contradictions and friction on military and security issues, trying to deal with present problems within a broader context is the way to approach the future.
Recently China's Oriental Outlook, and the Yomiuri Daily of Japan published their opinion surveys on the Sino-Japanese relationship. Asked about the future of Sino-Japanese relations, 8 percent of Chinese people said they would be "very good", 46 percent said "better", the total of favourable positive views amounted to 54 percent down from 74.6 percent in 2008 but up from 41.4 percent recorded in 2007. Meanwhile on the Japanese side, the figures are respectively 5 percent and 29 percent, lower than the 34.9 percent and the 37.5 percent recorded in 2007 and 2008 correspondingly.
The figures show that a favourable view about the two country's relationship is still mainstream public opinion, and that there is a strong "grassroots" basis for the stable development of Sino-Japanese relations, despite historical issues and current frictions. A win-win relationship based on mutual benefit is spreading from a vision of government and senior experts to become an everyday household understanding.
The same poll also surveyed opinion about Hatoyama's role in developing the Sino-Japanese relationship. 31.2 percent of Chinese think he will have a "more positive influence", 11.7 percent, a "more negative influence", and 34.7 percent, "mixture of positive and negative"; the corresponding figures in Japan are 29, 17, and 41 percent. This shows the public of both countries are optimistic about the trend of Sino-Japanese relations in the new era, but also think "opportunities coexist with challenges".
Goodwill is important in interpersonal relationships, and in terms of diplomatic relations, goodwill in the broad sense means public opinion, that's to say, the public understanding of the other side. The stable and sound development of Sino-Japanese relations cannot proceed without understanding and recognition at the "grassroots" level.
The two countries' relationship is marching into a new era thanks to the efforts of both governments. This era will be very different from the "embarrassment diplomacy" of the 1970's, when China felt embarrassed to accept Japanese visitors' apologies for WWII, nor will it drop back to the level of "cold political but hot economic" relations. Mutual trust between politicians and cooperation between governments need the support of the public. Compared with the state institutions, political beliefs and ideology, shared cultural traditions and values express the basic relationship between these two East Asian nations – and that is why public opinion polls need to be carefully observed.
Gao Hong is deputy director and research fellow of the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
(The article was translated by Maverick Chen)
